Russia’s war on Ukraine was waged against one country, but its consequences have damaged many countries, including some of the world’s most vulnerable, and with no end in sight, the economic toll of this war could be devastating in some parts of the world by the middle and end of 2022.
In an article for Yahoo News, writer Rick Newman said that the economic shock from the Russian war on Ukraine will spread wider and deeper with the fluctuation of the Ukrainian economy and sanctions stifling Russian and Belarusian exports.
According to the World Bank, Ukraine's production could fall 45% this year, with Eastern Europe in recession by 4.1%, and Western Europe likely heading into recession as well. For its part, Russia has stopped publishing some economic data, but it is also facing a deep recession, and the United States does not seem headed for a recession at the moment, but growth is slowing and consumers are pessimistic.
Neumann explained that poorer countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia may suffer more than Europe or the United States, saying that Russian aggression is hitting the entire world in 4 main ways.
- Energy: Russia is the world's third-largest producer of oil and natural gas, and many countries are trying to restrict or halt Russian energy purchases and deprive Moscow of much-needed energy revenues. $5 a gallon on average, the rise in energy prices in Europe, which relies more heavily on Russian energy, was more severe, and a full-blown energy shock could still occur, with prices rising dramatically.
- Food:
The damage to global food markets is not as immediate as the damage to oil and gas markets, but some experts warn that disaster is looming. Before the war, Ukraine produced 30% of the world’s sunflower oil, 6% of barley, 4% of wheat, and 3 % of corn.
Russia has blockaded all of Ukraine's ports on the Black Sea, which is the main way for Ukraine to export food to the rest of the world, and nothing moves through those ports, and rail links and roads to Europe cannot move all of Ukraine's production.
Destabilization:
Russia may not mind that its brutality in Ukraine causes difficulties around the world, and Rudiger von Fritsch - who spent a decade as German ambassador to Poland and then Russia - told the German magazine "Der Spiegel" recently that "Putin's calculations He wants to destabilize Europe with new flows of refugees and intensify political pressure until Western countries give up their hard line against Russia. This is his new hybrid war.” This would be similar to the strategy followed by Russia after its support of the Syrian government in the civil war there, which has led to the flight of more than 13 million refugees to Europe and elsewhere.
Shipping and Transportation:
"Covid-19" has complicated the world's sea lanes, and Russian militarism is now causing additional complications, with about 11% of the global shipping workforce from Russia, and 4% from Ukraine.