From the economy, to the EU response and the future of Putin, Telegraph experts reveal how the conflict could develop in the months ahead.
By
Dominic Nicholls
;
Campbell MacDiarmid
;
Nataliya Vasilyeva
;
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
;
Nick Allen
and
Joe Barnes
When Russia invaded Ukraine six months ago many thought Kyiv would fall within a week and that president Vlodomyr Zelensky would be captured – or worse.
Nothing could have been further from the reality.
Long since the capital came under attack, the war has now settled into a steady pattern of slow grinding conflict in the East and South.
In the meantime the world has changed dramatically.
But what does the future hold?
From the battle for the south to inside the Kremlin, our editors and correspondents predict the next six months of war.
‘Putin may stage unconventional attacks to distract from battlefield stalemate’
Dominic Nicholls, Defence and Security Editor
Ukrainian officials say the war has become bogged down in a “strategic stalemate”.
Moscow is unlikely to be in a position to change that situation very much over the next few months, given their forces are exhausted, running low on precision-guided munitions, and completely out of ideas.
Putin is unlikely to care about the toll exacted by the slow, attritional grind his army is achieving now.
But to shift the focus from his stalled advance, he may decide he has to respond disproportionately. In other words, we are unlikely to see a ‘traditional’ battlefield response and should instead expect an action away from the pure military sphere.
Which might explain the killing of Daria Dugina, the Russian propagandist, which analysts fear is a false flag operation by the Kremlin to give it cover fresh assaults on Ukrainian civilian targets in ‘retaliation’.
It may also explain the recent focus on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest.
If a significant military breakthrough is to happen – and it is a big ‘if’ – it is more likely to come from Ukraine.
It is unlikely the US will change its position of denying to Kyiv the 180-mile range ATACMS missile. Nevertheless, the flow of other long-range precision weapons has stymied Moscow’s ambitions in the Donbas and has helped shape the battlefield for a counteroffensive in the south.
Combined with activity behind Russia’s lines from partisan or special forces units, plus increased air defence systems providing greater freedom of movement for Ukraine’s air force (which is likely to be bolstered by Mig-29s gifted from European partners), that bodes well for Ukraine.
The winter weather is likely to set the war’s pace for the rest of this year.
Ukraine will want to land a significant blow before winter, to bolster morale and convince international partners to stay the course through the dark months. It is very possible Kyiv could retake the occupied city of Kherson to fulfil that need before the cold weather sets in properly.
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