James Carville's famous 1992 Democratic election mantra about the economy needs an update to encapsulate the depth of President Joe Biden's political chasm and how his hopes of climbing out depend largely on factors outside of his control.
A new CNN poll, conducted by SSRS and published Monday, showed that 75% of Americans see inflation as their top economic concern but only 25% of them approve of Biden's efforts to tame it. This represents a staggering repudiation of a President on an issue that is causing considerable pain for most families and figures to be the dominant issue in November's midterm elections.
These numbers help explain why inflation -- a gut punch that afflicts most voters directly, even more than job losses in most recessions -- is universally feared by elected officials. The plunge in confidence in Biden's leadership may also reflect his administration's blasé assurances last year that inflation was not a long-term concern, contradicting warnings of experts like former Democratic Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
Whatever happened in the past, it's clear that until Biden can convince the country he has inflation under control, his political fortunes are not likely to improve.
But the most daunting takeaway of the poll for Biden and Democrats, less than four months before the midterm elections, is that he has limited power to control the factor that could most dictate their fates. Biden, seeking to restore independence and integrity to government after Donald Trump's term, has stressed that primary responsibility for fighting inflation lies with the Federal Reserve, not the White House.
And the central bank's medicine, as it considers another big interest rate cut to temper demand, risks tipping the economy into recession and quelling the job growth that is one of Biden's best domestic achievements. Additionally, outside factors -- like the war in Ukraine, supply chain blockages and Covid-induced production shutdowns in Asian manufacturing hubs -- have the capacity to quickly make inflation worse.
Drowning out Biden's message
Whatever the causes of this crisis, the polling data suggests that Biden will not get a prolonged hearing from voters while higher food, energy and travel costs are shrinking their budgets.
Arguments that Democratic efforts to cut the cost of prescription drugs, extend Affordable Care Act subsidies and even to create a new clean energy industry will make everyday life cheaper are unlikely to cut through -- as valid as they may be -- since they are long-term remedies.
The perception of an overwhelmed White House, helpless in the face of Americans' immediate pain, is no doubt exacerbating the President's other political problems, including increasing debate over his age and whether he will run for reelection in 2024.
A Biden boom coming out of the pandemic would have helped drown out such concerns, but high inflation has deflected attention from a strong economic recovery and bumper jobs growth.