With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi poised to land in Taiwan later on Tuesday, the world is now bracing for China’s response.
China considers Taiwan as its territory. President Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden that anyone who plays with fire will be burned in reference to Taiwan. In China's response to Pelosi's visit as the highest US official to visit Taiwan in 25 years, China's army will not stand idly by, as State Department spokesperson Zhao Ligan said.
Neither Xi nor Biden has an interest in provoking a conflict that could cause more economic damage at home.
But hostile rhetoric and growing hostility in both countries are adding to pressure on Xi to take a strong response.
While the United States abolished the Mutual Defense Treaty with Taiwan in 1979, China should consider the possibility of luring the U.S. military. Biden said in May that Washington would defend Taiwan in any attack from China, although the White House made it clear that he meant the United States would defend Taiwan. Provision of military weapons in line with existing agreements.
"The big limitation on both sides remains the risk of a war that would be very costly from either side's perspective," said Andrew Gilholm, director of analysis for China and North Asia at Control Risks on Bloomberg TV. However, he added, "The concern is that the risks will be taken because of the local drivers."
Here are options for actions China could take:
1. Bigger Warplane Incursions
With the daily incursion into the island's air defense identification area already, the People's Liberation Army would need to send out either a large or unusual series of flights. The daily record is 56 aircraft for the Chinese People's Liberation Army on October 4, which coincided with the nearby military exercises led by the United States.
China could maintain this level of aggression for days or weeks, depleting Taiwan's already stretched air force resources as it seeks to keep planes out.
2. Flying Warplanes Over Taiwan
The Global Times of the Communist Party suggested that China conduct a direct military flight over Taiwan. Last year, Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kucheng warned: "The closer they got to the island, the more forcefully we would respond."
Hu Xijin, a former editor in chief of the Global Times, said in a now-deleted tweet that PLA planes could "forcefully dispel Pelosi's plane." He even suggested that Chinese warplanes "accompany" Pelosi on any attempt to fly into Taiwan, a move that could easily lead to miscalculation on both sides.
3. Seize an Island
Beijing has military options other than launching a perilous invasion across the 130-kilometre (80-mile) Taiwan Strait — such as seizing one of the remote, government-controlled islands in Taipei, although that kind of provocation is highly unlikely.