FOLLOWING the city of Shanghai, the Chinese capital Beijing has now closed down businesses, with millions told to work from home.With no end in sight, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under leader Xi Jinping is still doggedly pursuing its ‘Zero Covid’ strategy. But, why? After all, China could easily fake the numbers of Covid cases. The figures the CCP reported in 2020 seem dubious to say the least. There are question marks about the accuracy of everything from the size of the population to the economy in China. So, why not fake the Covid numbers now?
Symbolising unprecedented opposition to the CCP’s policies, one video protesting the Shanghai lockdown – Voices of April - went viral, outpacing censors as it was re-shared millions of times on the social media site, Weibo.
While China’s inadequate healthcare system and low vaccination rate have been offered as possible explanations for these draconian measures, the CCP could still fake the data and conceal the truth.
Loss of face might be a better explanation. Having committed to Zero Covid, to backtrack now could create even more reputational damage for the CCP, emboldening Xi’s enemies within the party as he seeks an unprecedented third term.
But given that the CCP could just lie, could it be that Beijing is actually stress-testing the Chinese people, society and economy for a major upheaval?
In the shadow of a recent defence pact with the Pacific Solomon Islands and given the longstanding aim of ‘retaking’ democratic Taiwan, could China be stress-testing for war?
It is in this light we may also interpret Chinese ally North Korea’s decision to order its own national lockdown after confirming its first official Covid infections. Observers believe Covid has long been present in North Korea.
Now, Pyongyang has confirmed its first Covid death. It is possible that North Korea really has a serious outbreak, while its healthcare system is deemed particularly vulnerable to an outbreak. But, like China, North Korea would have no problem hiding all this if need be.
Crucially, in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, North Korea could well play the role Belarus has played in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The CCP could coerce Pyongyang to launch attacks from its territory, possibly against nearby US targets, to ensure an element of plausible deniability.
In the mix meanwhile, the election of Ferdinand (“Bongbong”) Marcos Jr – son of the former dictator - in the recent Philippines’ presidential election, could be highly significant for a Taiwan invasion. Marcos has close ties with China and is seeking a deal with Xi Jinping over the contested South China Sea.
Given that the Philippines sits just south of Taiwan - and that any deal with Xi would cover an area where China has plenty of militarised artificial islands for attacking Taiwan – this election could be hugely significant.