More than 100,000 Russians have crossed into Kazakhstan since Russian President Vladimir Putin put the country into a state of partial mobilisation.

In a speech last week, Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev described the fleeing men's situation as "hopeless".

For now, Mr Tokayev has vowed to "take care of them and secure their safety".

Kazakhstan has traditionally been a Kremlin ally but analysts say it's open support for people Moscow may consider criminals is a further sign it could be drifting out of Russia's orbit. 

Unlike other allies China and Belarus, not a single Kazakh official has voiced support for Mr Putin's war — and Mr Tokayev is taking an increasingly strident tone against it.  

He's vowed not to recognise Russia's claims over eastern Ukraine or Crimea and he's promised not to help Russia bypass sanctions. 

This is despite Mr Tokayev and his government effectively being propped up by a Russian-led military mission in January amid widespread unrest. 

So could Ukraine's lightning offensive around Kharkiv not only have punctured Russia's depleted army but also its status as a regional power in Central Asia?

And could a diminished Russia be an opening for China to build even stronger ties with its neighbours?

Since the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, Russia has sought to maintain influence among the bloc's 15 now-independent states.

Mr Putin himself declared more than 20 years ago that the former Soviet republics were within Russia's "sphere of influence".

Kazakhstan is the biggest former Soviet republic in Central Asia, both economically and geographically, and a significant portion of its population is ethnically Russian, particularly in the north.

While the two have long maintained good relations, Kazakhstan and Russia's relationship today is complex.

On the one hand, the countries have strong diplomatic, security and economic ties, according to Nargis Kassenova, a senior fellow in Eurasian studies at Harvard University. 

"We're probably the most Russified former Soviet republic," she said.

"The Russian language is very widely used … we read Russian books, we watch Russian TV, we are inside the Russian information space.

"On the other hand, Russia violates the territorial integrity and sovereignty of one of the former Soviet republics, and we can imagine ourselves to be in the same situation."

In March, one Moscow official called for the "denazification" of Kazakhstan, the same justification Russia's government is using for its gambit in Ukraine.

In early September, in a now deleted social media post, deputy chairman of Russia's security council Dmitry Medvedev said Kazakhstan was an "artificial state" and Russia could turn its attention to the fate of its northern regions next.