Formula 1 finds itself in the midst of a weekend break before the French Grand Prix next week, but that won’t stop us from evaluating the current outright prices.
As it stands, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen (+120) is favored by oddsmakers to recover from his P2 finish a week ago in Austria and claim victory for the second consecutive year in France. On his tail is lead Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc (+150), who claimed victory last week to bring himself closer to Verstappen in the world championship race.
There’s a big dropoff in the odds after that. Lewis Hamilton (+800), Sergio Perez (12/1), Carlos Sainz and George Russell (each 14/1) round out the top six on the odds board. For reference, the next closest group of drivers is priced at 80/1.
But which drivers should bettors target in the French Grand Prix outright market? Here are my best bets a little more than a week out. All odds are from BetMGM and are subject to movement.
Although Hamilton, a seven-time Formula 1 World Champion, has yet to win this season, the results are starting to go his way.
The Englishman has posted three consecutive podium finishes and four straight finishes of P4 or better. That comes after Hamilton posted just two finishes in the top four in the first seven grand prix races of the 2022 season.
Lewis Hamilton drives on the track ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of Canada.
As a result, this feels like the right time to buy in on Hamilton, whose odds — in my opinion — give bettors a slight implied probability edge. Plus, Hamilton has done well historically at tracks that correlate with France.
Just this season, Hamilton owns a P6 in Miami and a P3 at Silverstone, two circuits that demonstrate similar characteristics to France. Additionally, Hamilton owns a great historical record at one other circuit that correlates strongly with France — Abu Dhabi. In his last six races at that track, Hamilton has never failed to finish on the podium and owns three wins.
Add in a great record in France — no worse than P2 in his last three starts — and I’m willing to take a shot with Hamilton.
Sergio Perez (12/1)
Perez has disappointed over the last three grand prix events, posting two DNFs in those three starts.
I believe there’s reason for optimism, however, with the secondary Red Bull Racing driver. Sandwiched in between those two DNFs was a P2 finish at Silverstone, a correlative track to France. Additionally, Perez was a solid P4 in Miami. Perez also established himself as a reliable qualifier in both those races, starting P4 on the grid at each grand prix.