Gas deliveries from Russia: The crisis will remain, even if the gas flows again
The gas may flow again, but Germany's dependence on Russian gas must in any case continue to decrease. The only way to do that is through higher prices.
This Thursday is an embarrassing day for the fourth largest economy in the world. A day that clearly shows the failure of the previous energy policy. Bang Germany has been waiting for the end of maintenance work on Nord Stream 1. Does gas now flow – or does the tap remain closed?
And indeed, it flows. But that is no reason to breathe a sigh of relief. The gas crisis is by no means over. Because as early as tomorrow, Russia's President Vladimir Putin could throttle deliveries again or stop them altogether. Or the day after tomorrow. Or in October when people turn up the heat. Even before the gas starts flowing again, Putin threatened the next throttling this week. Germany is at its mercy.
Act as if the delivery stop was coming
It would be wise for everyone involved to act as if no more gas was coming from Russia on a permanent basis. This applies to the federal government, but also to companies and consumers.
One can hope for the best. But when it comes to energy supply, you have to prepare for the worst. In other words, a drastic undersupply of gas, because of which factories would have to close in droves and the economy would collapse.
Related video: Crisis summer in Europe: will Russia gas flow again from Thursday?
Some studies argue that Germany could already get by without Russian gas. Most recently, this resulted in modeling by a team from Princeton University. But that depends very much on the assumptions made. Other researchers therefore disagree, there is a risk of empty storage before the end of winter. And in those scenarios where there is enough gas, fortunate circumstances must come together.
First, there must be no failures in non-Russian sources. Two pieces of news from the past few weeks show how uncertain this is: an LNG terminal caught fire in the USA, and workers on three drilling platforms in Norway went on strike. Secondly, the floating LNG terminals in German ports must be completed on time. The exception rather than the rule for infrastructure projects. And thirdly, the weather has to play along: none of the studies has calculated a scenario with an unusually cold winter and correspondingly higher heating requirements. All sorts of imponderables. The gas supply is anything but secure.
The federal government has done a great deal in a short time to find alternative sources of gas. If everything goes according to plan, two floating LNG terminals will feed the Arabian gas into the German grid at the turn of the year, with at least two more to follow next year.