On February 7, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense sounded the alarm about a potential new step in the Russian arms race: the formation of a “private military company” by Russian oil giant Gazprom Neft. In a press release, the Ukrainian government warned that the unit would be comparable to notorious mercenary organization the Wagner Group.
On its face, however, the Russian announcement of the group published on Feb. 4 could be interpreted very differently. Rather than a “military organization,” the order signed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin allows the establishment of a “private security organization” under a law permitting energy companies to create such groups to secure their facilities.
There’s little known about this security organization beyond the contents of Mishustin’s order, and it’s unknown what role it will eventually play in Ukraine or abroad. For now, however, experts on Russian energy who spoke with TIME are sharply divided on the group—and whether it will pose a threat to Ukraine or other nations.
What is Gazprom Neft?
Gazprom Neft, which produces and refines oil in Russia and abroad, is a subsidiary of the energy company Gazprom, in which the Russian government holds a majority stake. Gazprom is essential to the Russian economy as it is the largest company in the country and was the largest producer of natural gas globally in 2021.
In addition to its economic value, however, Russia has long utilized Gazprom’s oil and gas as a political tool abroad. Russia has used the promise of contracts or pipelines to forge relationships—or wielded the threat of price increases or turning off supplies to apply political pressure. For instance, after the toppling of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, Gazprom increased the price of gas for Ukraine by 80%.
The threat of creeping Russian influence makes the construction of pipelines by Gazprom controversial. One example includes the Nord Stream pipelines, a network which runs from Russia to Germany. Nord Stream 1 was completed in 2011, while Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021. In September 2022, both pipelines were damaged in what many experts said were acts of sabotage. In the months since, western countries and Russia have disputed who was responsible. While some countries have said Russia attacked the pipeline, the Russian government and, recently, investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, have accused the United States.
Why is Gazprom Neft building a security organization?
Experts have varied theories for why Gazprom Neft would be inclined to create this organization.
One is that Gazprom, like many energy companies, is forming a security organization to protect its pipelines. Securing pipelines and extraction sites is logical during a war, as sabotage is more likely, argues Gerhard Mangott, a professor at the University of Innsbruck studying Russian foreign policy.