For the next three days, the Gulf of Mexico will be the focus of tropical weather observers.

This weekend, a region of meteorological disturbance has formed there and will move eastward into the Florida Peninsula.

The National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a low (20%) chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the following seven days as of Tuesday afternoon.

But it also serves as a reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Thursday, June 1.

A trough of low pressure near the surface that was interacting with another trough higher up in the sky, according to forecasters, was the cause of rain and storms across the Gulf on Tuesday.

Only "marginally favorable" conditions, according to the hurricane center, existed for the system to develop over the next days. By this weekend, it should have passed the Florida Peninsula and will enter the southwestern Atlantic early the following week.

Later this week, Florida may experience strong gusts and heavy rain due to the disturbance.

According to the National Weather Service in Mobile, it may also cause rain and storms in Alabama:

We're monitoring an area of disorganized showers and storms over the central Gulf. This will likely bring increased moisture (and rain chances) to our area, especially on Thursday. However, this system has a low chance of formation (into a tropical system) at this time. 

Last Monday, NOAA published its hurricane prognosis for the Atlantic, and analysts predicted a season close to average.

According to NOAA's forecast, there may be 12–17 named storms (which include tropical storms and hurricanes), 5–9 hurricanes, and 1–4 significant hurricanes (storms that are Category 3 or greater).

According to NOAA, the Atlantic basin experiences 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes on average per season.

Arlene is listed as the initial name for the Atlantic storm in 2023.