Increasingly in Washington, the question is not whether China’s People’s Liberation Army will invade Taiwan — it’s when.
Ask three different people about when it will happen, and you will get three different answers. Earlier this year, retired Indo-Pacific Commander Adm. Philip Davidson reiterated his earlier assessment that China could launch military action in 2027. Gen. Mike Minihan, the commander of U.S. Air Mobility Command, made a splash in January when he sent a memo to his officers that the U.S. could be at war with the PLA within two years. Adm. Mike Gilday, the chief of naval operations, was even starker in his own projection last fall: The Chinese could give the go order in 2022 or potentially 2023.
Now, Hillary Clinton is getting into the game.
AS CHINA'S AGGRESSION GROWS, US ALLIES REASSESS SECURITY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION
During a discussion in New York City, the former secretary of state claimed that China’s Xi Jinping could have ordered a strike on Taiwan in two to three years. But, she said, "I think that time table has been pushed back." She cited the Russian military's poor performance in Ukraine as a reason why Xi may be having second thoughts about starting his own war.