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How Africa and the Middle East could tip

$20/hr Starting at $25

  • Russian invasion of Ukraine has blocked grain exports, and will likely cause food shortages for years to come 
  • 44million at risk of starvation while another 395million will see shortages, World Food Programme warned
  • Africa and Middle East will be hardest-hit regions, as leaders pressure the West to help bring war to an end 
  • African Union leader Macky Sall and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa have joined likes of Turkey's Erdogan and Saudi Arabia's Bin Salman in calling for a peace deal, which experts say would favour Russia
  • Ukraine believes its fate will be decided in the mud and blood of Donbas - where its troops are trying to grind Russia's army into the dirt using skill, courage, and a fearsome arsenal of Western weaponry.
  • But it seems increasingly likely that its destiny could be decided on another frontline, thousands of miles away: In the deserts of the Middle East and drought-stricken farmlands of Africa, where 44million people who relied on the country for food are now facing famine unless the conflict can be brought to a swift end.

    Blockades of Ukraine's main Black Sea ports have placed a stranglehold on grain supplies which previously fed 400million, threatening starvation and riots from Libya to Liberia, and Syria to South Sudan.

    On this front, at least, Putin seems to be winning. A growing chorus of leaders - joined in recent weeks by African Union head Macky Sall - are putting pressure on the West to pave the way for a peace deal that most analysts say would favour Russia, but which would get supplies flowing again.

    Playing catch-up, Western leaders - including Boris Johnson at today's G7 meeting - have vowed to do 'whatever it takes' to reopen Ukraine's ports, but are faced with the daunting task of sailing cargo vessels past Russia's Black Sea fleet and through a minefield to get the grain.

    All the while, the risk of multiple and simultaneous global famines continues to grow - and with it, Putin's chances of eking out something resembling a victory despite Ukraine's heroics on the battlefield.

  • Before the outbreak of war on February 24, Ukraine supplied some 11 per cent of the world's grain with food being one of its major exports - worth $18.5billion in 2018, according to latest-available data from the World Bank.

    Almost half of those exports went to Europe but a quarter went to either the Middle East and North Africa or sub-Saharan Africa - two regions that are now most at-risk of shortages, because they have few alternatives to turn to.

    Ukraine was also a major supplier of the World Food Programme - a UN body which provides sustenance for the globe's most-vulnerable - providing up to 40 per cent of its wheat, which is used to make staples such as bread.

    For the time being, the crisis is logistical: There is plenty of food to go around, the difficulty is getting it to the people who need it.


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  • Russian invasion of Ukraine has blocked grain exports, and will likely cause food shortages for years to come 
  • 44million at risk of starvation while another 395million will see shortages, World Food Programme warned
  • Africa and Middle East will be hardest-hit regions, as leaders pressure the West to help bring war to an end 
  • African Union leader Macky Sall and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa have joined likes of Turkey's Erdogan and Saudi Arabia's Bin Salman in calling for a peace deal, which experts say would favour Russia
  • Ukraine believes its fate will be decided in the mud and blood of Donbas - where its troops are trying to grind Russia's army into the dirt using skill, courage, and a fearsome arsenal of Western weaponry.
  • But it seems increasingly likely that its destiny could be decided on another frontline, thousands of miles away: In the deserts of the Middle East and drought-stricken farmlands of Africa, where 44million people who relied on the country for food are now facing famine unless the conflict can be brought to a swift end.

    Blockades of Ukraine's main Black Sea ports have placed a stranglehold on grain supplies which previously fed 400million, threatening starvation and riots from Libya to Liberia, and Syria to South Sudan.

    On this front, at least, Putin seems to be winning. A growing chorus of leaders - joined in recent weeks by African Union head Macky Sall - are putting pressure on the West to pave the way for a peace deal that most analysts say would favour Russia, but which would get supplies flowing again.

    Playing catch-up, Western leaders - including Boris Johnson at today's G7 meeting - have vowed to do 'whatever it takes' to reopen Ukraine's ports, but are faced with the daunting task of sailing cargo vessels past Russia's Black Sea fleet and through a minefield to get the grain.

    All the while, the risk of multiple and simultaneous global famines continues to grow - and with it, Putin's chances of eking out something resembling a victory despite Ukraine's heroics on the battlefield.

  • Before the outbreak of war on February 24, Ukraine supplied some 11 per cent of the world's grain with food being one of its major exports - worth $18.5billion in 2018, according to latest-available data from the World Bank.

    Almost half of those exports went to Europe but a quarter went to either the Middle East and North Africa or sub-Saharan Africa - two regions that are now most at-risk of shortages, because they have few alternatives to turn to.

    Ukraine was also a major supplier of the World Food Programme - a UN body which provides sustenance for the globe's most-vulnerable - providing up to 40 per cent of its wheat, which is used to make staples such as bread.

    For the time being, the crisis is logistical: There is plenty of food to go around, the difficulty is getting it to the people who need it.


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