In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western leaders heralded a sanctions regime that would cripple the country's war machine. 

Joe Biden claimed Russia's economy would be "cut in half", while Boris Johnson spoke of squeezing it "piece by piece."

A year has passed, but that great promise has been slow to deliver.

"The Russian economy and system of government have turned out to be much stronger than the West believed," President Vladimir Putin said in a speech to the country's parliament on Tuesday.

He was also flexing his muscles at an economic cabinet meeting last month: "Remember, some of our experts here in the country - I'm not even talking about Western experts - thought [gross domestic product] would fall by 10%, 15%, even 20%."

Instead, Russia shrunk by a relatively modest 2.2% and it is expected to grow by 0.3% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

It means the sanctions-hit country will outperform Britain.

Among Western leaders, these predictions will make for unpleasant reading.

Over the past year, sanctions have descended on Russia's economy but, to the surprise of most economists, it has weathered the storm.

This is largely down to the country's oil and gas reserves. Although Europe turned its back on Russian energy exports, the country was able to exploit delays in imposing the ban, which helped bolster its public finances.