Is There Any End to the Ukraine War in Sight?
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, many observers expected that Russia’s military would make quick work of President Vladimir Putin’s mission: to capture the country’s capital, Kyiv, depose its democratically elected government and restore Ukraine to Moscow’s control. But nearly six months later, after Russian forces failed to take Kyiv, the war has evolved into one of attrition, grinding on with no end on the immediate horizon.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine continues to project an air of cautious optimism about the conflict’s trajectory. In June he told world leaders that he wanted the war to end before 2023, adding that he would “only negotiate from a position of strength.”
What are the prospects that the war will end on such a short timetable, and what paths might its resolution take?
Where things stand
As The Times’s Kyiv bureau chief, Andrew E. Kramer, reported, the fighting in Ukraine is effectively now divided into two theaters: the Donbas region in the east, much of which Russia has captured, where Ukrainian forces are seeking to slow Russia’s advance, and the south, where Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch a counteroffensive to recapture lost territory.
Both sides have suffered immense casualties and resource strain. As many as 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the invasion began, according to a Pentagon estimate, surpassing the number of U.S. military casualties during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars combined. The Russian military also appears to be running low on manpower and equipment.
On the Ukrainian side, recent official estimates of military deaths have ranged widely, from 100 to 1,000 per day. More than 12,000 civilians have been killed or wounded, according to a United Nations estimate, though the actual figures are believed to be far higher. Last month Zelensky asked U.S. lawmakers for more and better weapons and has even asked the Biden administration to deploy U.S. military personnel in Kyiv, the Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin reported. In mid-July, Zelensky fired two top law enforcement officials, raising questions about dysfunction or corruption in his administration.
Because Ukraine and Russia are major producers of wheat, corn and barley, the conflict has exacerbated a global food crisis. In a breakthrough last month, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to release grain stuck in Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. But the shift may do little in the short term to help most of the 50 million people in 45 countries who are teetering on the brink of famine because of other wars, the coronavirus pandemic and extreme weather made worse by climate change, The Times’s Declan Walsh reported.