The Climate Threat

By far, the most dire problem is climate change, which is changing earth’s environment at a pace that is too fast for the biosphere to adapt. Nearly one-third of animal and plant life is already projected to go extinct by 2100 due to human activity like eradication of forests, which not only sustain wildlife, but also act as natural carbon sinks, and are critical for the mitigation of climate change. 

The IPCC estimates that the world will need to transition to net-zero emissions by 2050 to keep temperatures 1.5℃ below pre-industrial levels, to avoid the worst effects of climate change, like irreversible self-reinforcing feedback loops.

However, IPCC climate estimates have often been criticized for being a little far too conservative, resulting in climate realities almost always arriving earlier than expected and being far worse than expected.

To prevent the worst, fossil fuels will have to be phased out in absolute terms as fast as possible, but the global economy is too dependent on them that their share in the global energy mix reduced by just 0.1% during 2009-2019. 

It is because clean energy sources like wind, solar and hydro lack the energy density needed to run a complex civilization like ours at scale, with nuclear power having problems of its own. In this respect, fusion energy is the only viable alternative, but so far, remains elusive. 

Agricultural Crisis: A Malthusian Catastrophe in the Making

Humanity’s agricultural practices are also unsustainable, with 40% of the global land having become too degraded for productive yields and 90% of the global topsoil further at risk by the next 30 years, per the UN analyses. 

This is leading to a decline in agricultural yield. However, the human population is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050, which is projected to increase demand for food by 59% to 98%. But, based on the World Resources Institute estimates, agricultural production needs to increase by a whopping 50% by that time to sustain the 2050 population. On the current trajectory, it is increasingly looking like a disaster waiting to happen.