- Any polls will fall short of democratic standards, and prospects for peace and stability are ‘extremely bleak’ this year, critics say
- Analysts call for global commitment to end junta’s widespread abuses through targeted sanctions and accountability for atrocities
- Members of the Myanmar military march during a parade to mark the country’s Independence Day in Naypyidaw on January 4, 2023. Photo: AFP
Myanmar marks two years since a coup this week which has led to civil war, trashed the economy and dragged the country back into isolation, leaving experts to warn proposed elections under junta rules will not provide an off ramp from the chaos and violence.Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing seized power on February 1, 2021, alleging widespread fraud in a general election which a few months earlier saw a landslide win for the party of Myanmar’s democracy figurehead Aung San Suu Kyi.The allegations, which observers say had no basis, justified the coup which has pitched Myanmar into violence as the military contends with a large, increasingly organised rebellion of ordinary citizens and armed ethnic rebel groups.Genocide and war crimes lawsuit puts Myanmar’s military in spotlight24 Jan 2023Thousands of pro-democracy activists have been killed or jailed and civilians have come under frequent artillery and air strikes, while the widespread insurgency has also inflicted heavy losses on the army.
Last week the junta rolled out an election law for political parties to contest a poll it has said will take place in late 2023 despite the violence.But with Suu Kyi, 77, in jail – she faces 33 years on a series of politically-targeted charges – and a ban on candidates or parties with links to “terrorist” groups as described by the junta, critics say it will fall woefully short of democratic standards.“If an election happens, it will be neither free and fair nor inclusive across the entire country,” said Hunter Marston, a researcher on Southeast Asia at the Australian National University, adding the prospects for peace and stability this year were “extremely bleak”.The junta craves some form of legitimacy and sees parliamentary politics “as a respected way of organising political life, even if under military tutelage”, according to Renaud Egreteau, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong.
“However, there are so many obstacles along the way,” Egreteau said, noting that “hatred of the junta” was genuinely widespread among most constituencies in the country.