The global monkeypox outbreak shows no signs of slowing down.  Someone recently pointed out to me that 9,000 cases out of a worldwide population of nearly 8 billion people is not really that big of a deal, and that would be correct.  But my concern is what this outbreak could become.  Despite everything that health officials all over the western world have done so far, the number of cases continues to rise at an exponential rate.  There are now 10,320 cases, and this outbreak has spread to 72 different countries.  If the trajectory of this outbreak does not change, what will the numbers look like by the end of this year?

The very first cases in the western world were reported in the UK in mid-May, and now there are 1,735 confirmed British cases…

British health officials say there have now been 1,735 confirmed cases of monkeypox and that three-quarters of those cases are in London, according to data released on Tuesday.

The total number of confirmed cases in the UK has doubled again, and that has been happening “about every two weeks”…

British scientists estimate the outbreak is doubling in size about every two weeks and said it’s likely cases are being undercounted. They said that in nearly 80% of cases, there is no information about whether or not the person had contact with a confirmed case, meaning the virus is spreading undetected.

If cases keep doubling in the UK at that rate, there will be more than a million confirmed British cases by the end of 2022.

Here in the United States, it appears that monkeypox is spreading even faster

In fact, we just learned that the number of confirmed monkeypox cases in New York City “has once again doubled in a week”…

The number of likely monkeypox cases in New York City has once again doubled in a week.As of Monday, July 12, 267 people in the city have tested positive for orthopoxvirus (see below) and all likely have monkeypox, according to the city’s Health Department. That is up from 111 cases on July 5 and more than quadruple the number from a week prior to that.

267 cases is certainly not the end of the world, but if cases keep doubling every week New York City will also have more than a million confirmed cases by the end of the year.

In Chicago, the very first case was confirmed less than a month ago, and now the total number of cases is up to 105…

Since monkeypox was first detected in the city nearly a month ago, 105 Chicagoans have been diagnosed with the virus, health officials said.The cases have mostly involved men who have sex with men, officials said. The city has begun to offer targeted vaccinations.

If you are reading this, you have probably had an encounter with COVID by now, and many of you probably thought that it wasn’t that big of a deal.