The U.S. drone strike that killed Al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri in Kabul last weekend jolted Americans, reminding them that Islamic extremists are still active. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the rise of China, climate change and the COVID pandemic are among the many pressing issues that have relegated foreign terrorism to the rearview mirror.
And yet, as President Biden pointed out, America’s national security apparatus never forgets. “No matter how long it takes, no matter where you hide,” he said Monday night, “if you are a threat to our people, the United States will find you and take you out.”
But how much of a threat was Zawahiri? Will his death protect Americans?
As much as the success of the manhunt demonstrates necessary resolve against terrorists who attack the U.S., the Al Qaeda that Zawahiri left behind was already diminished by internal and external forces. Since Osama bin Laden’s death at U.S. hands in 2011, and since 9/11 itself, it’s been a shadow of the organization that once commanded world attention. A new leader might revive its fortunes somewhat, but Al Qaeda’s threat to the U.S. homeland will remain limited.
Drone strikes, a global intelligence campaign and better homeland defenses all have taken a substantial toll on the group, as did infighting within the radical Islamist movement and the atrocities its adherents inflicted on Muslim civilians in Iraq and other countries. Key planners, fundraisers, trainers and other lieutenants were killed, arrested, or forced to lie low, making it hard to plot spectacular attacks or even maintain a coherent movement.
Al Qaeda proper has not successfully attacked the United States or Europe since 2005, an eternity for a terrorist group seeking to grab world attention. Rival but related organizations such as Islamic State, commonly known as ISIS, have also been undermined by concerted counterterrorism efforts and infighting. ISIS’ loss of territorial control in Iraq and Syria was a crippling blow for a group whose brand centered on creating a genuine caliphate ruled by Islamic law.
Under the uncharismatic Zawahiri, Al Qaeda survived but it didn’t thrive. He was unable to stop ISIS from violently rejecting his leadership and proved uninspiring to many potential recruits. Bin Laden’s No. 2 could claim one gain during his tenure, the group’s expansion, often through converting terrorist groups in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia into Al Qaeda affiliates.
Some of these offshoots — notably the Yemen branch, known as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula — have inspired and perhaps even orchestrated attacks on the West, including the most recent attack in the United States, in Florida in December 2019. The attacker, a Saudi military trainee, killed three and wounded eight others at a naval base before he was killed. According to FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, the trainee was “more than inspired” by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, he “was sharing plans and tactics” with it.