If you talk to anyone in Western diplomatic circles — especially in the security, intelligence and defence sectors — what is about to unfold over the next few weeks in Scandinavia counts among Russia's worst nightmares.

The inclusion of Finland and possibly Sweden in NATO, politically and militarily the source of all that is evil to Moscow, will stretch the alliance firmly from the Arctic Ocean all the way to the Black Sea, pressed right up against the border.

It is the kind of scenario that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to avoid. 

Back before he unleashed the horror of a full invasion of his most immediate neighbour, Putin sought to push back against NATO expansion, demanding Ukraine never be allowed to join the Western military alliance. Last December, he went further and insisted the North Atlantic allies retreat from eastern Europe back to their pre-expansion 1997 lines.

Russian President Vladimir Putin looks on during the Victory Day military parade marking the 77th anniversary of the end of World War II in Moscow on Monday. Should Sweden and Finland join NATO, Putin would be facing an enemy alliance from the Arctic Ocean all the way to the Black Sea. (Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo/The Associated Press)