A rivalry between Russia's military and Wagner Group mercenaries has come to the fore in Ukraine.
Recent broadsides by Wagner's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, may be attempts to justify Wagner's struggles.
A leadership change also suggests the Kremlin is seeking to bolster military leaders in that rivalry.
The war in Ukraine continues to go poorly for the Russians, and that is creating rifts among their leadership.
Indeed, with curses and excuses, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group and President Vladimir Putin's favorite mercenary leader, may be preparing to justify a failure in one of the fiercest battles of the war: Bakhmut.
Two recent videos illustrate what may be pre-emptive efforts to rationalize Wagner's failure. They may also be two of the most public displays of the intense rivalry that has developed between Wagner and Russia's regular military.
In an obscenity-laced tirade published in the closing days of 2022, Wagner Group mercenaries called Russia's senior military officer, Chief of the General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov, a "fucking motherfucker" because of what they say is a lack of ammunition supplies and logistical support from Moscow to the group's fighters.
Prigozhin not only backed his mercenaries up but continued the direct assault against Russia's top officers. In an audio message posted on the official Telegram channel of his firm, Concord Management, Prigozhin said, "when you're sitting in a warm office, it's hard to hear the problems on the frontline, but when you're dragging the dead bodies of your friends every day, and seeing them for the last time, then supplies are very much needed."
In a second video, published in early January, Prigozhin and purported Wagner mercenaries tried to justify their lack of progress in Bakhmut, blaming a lack of materiel support from the Russian military for their struggles to overcome intricate Ukrainian defenses.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, assessed that with the video, Prigozhin "is likely setting information conditions to blame Wagner Group's failure to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian industrial base."
In mid-January, Putin replaced Gen. Sergei Surovikin with Gerasimov as the overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. There are differing explanations for the change, but Surovikin, who is also commander of Russia's Aerospace Forces, was widely viewed as an ally of Prigozhin and Wagner Group. His removal may be an attempt by the Kremlin to balance the dynamics between the two camps.
Gerasimov issued new general orders for all troops in Ukraine in an attempt to bolster morale and discipline. Prigozhin was quick to criticize them — another instance of the mercenary leader's long-running challenge to Russia's military leadership.