resident Joe Biden attracted attention earlier this year in Warsaw, Poland, when he stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power." There has been consensus across the West to oppose Russian aggression, but this statement provoked concern from surprised allies. Administration officials were quick to point out that the president was not calling for regime change. The reality is that Biden expressed what many policy makers were secretly thinking. Namely, that Putin needs to go. While this view expresses optimism that Russian leadership change would produce a less militant Moscow that is more open to the West, it is a problematic assumption that ignores history and Russia's domestic political reality.

Russia is a challenging state to govern. Its leaders have relied on a top-down leadership structure that originated under the Tsars, was recapitulated in the Soviet era, and is present today. When new leaders emerge, they need to work endlessly to consolidate their control over the state and society. Even regional specialists sometimes fail to perceive the grueling circumstances awaiting new Russian leaders who will need to employ violence strategically to maintain their rule. In the past, many people looked forward to better East-West relations when Leonid Brezhnev replaced Nikita Khrushchev following the Cuban missile crisis. This hope failed as the Soviet Union moved away from the West by adopting a more conservative and defensive orientation. Even Mikhail Gorbachev faced a serious internal fight when he gained the premiership and needed to solidify his leadership. He sought to re-forge Moscow's claim to international supremacy by rebuilding and reviving the economy—this created an opportunity for a special relationship with Ronald Reagan that led to several arm's reduction treaties and enhanced cooperation.