Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s aerospace leadership had planned to market the next generation heavy fighter bomber, the Su-57, and its highly touted derivative the Su-75 to several foreign military buyers. These plans now appear to be in ruins.

The Su-57 suffers from a low production rate. Export models are unlikely to be available until the end of the decade. As for the medium-weight Su-75, the so-called “Checkmate” aircraft, it has been only realized in models and computer graphics. It’s yet to have a single successful test flight.

For foreign buyers, that leaves the Sukhoi 35 (Su-35), the only Russian military aircraft in serial production. This is Russia’s signature heavy fighter bomber — although its combat record over the skies of Ukraine is mixed. But even the Su-35 might not be successfully exported in any significant numbers this decade.

Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Counter America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) was an important factor in deterring potential buyers of the Su-35 such as Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia. To discourage countries from buying Russian weapons and deny Russia the revenue from those sales, Congress passed third-party sanctions legislation to require the executive branch to sanction them if they did. Several countries have cancelled contracts to buy Russian weapons and sought equivalent defense capabilities from other countries rather than face the prospect of U.S. sanctions.