Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be sworn in as president of the country on 29 May 2023. That’s if the courts uphold his election victory.
Tinubu won the highly contested 25 February presidential election with 37% of the total votes. At least two leading opposition candidates have filed separate legal challenges to the election results.
The new president will face many challenges, chief of which is insecurity. Multiple armed conflicts, high levels of organised crime and worsening food insecurity persist around the country.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that some three million Nigerians have been internally displaced by insecurity. The country’s geographical regions are associated with distinct ethnicities and religions. Each has experienced different forms of insecurity:
farmer-herder conflicts in the country’s middle belt
insurgency in the north-east
banditry in the north-west
separatist violence in the south-east.
We have published work on communal conflict in Northern Nigeria, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Kenya and have worked in community development. Based on the lead author’s work on conflict in Nigeria, we are of the view that Tinubu’s presidency could increase tensions in central and south-east Nigeria, while reducing violence in the north.
Our research indicates that Nigeria’s sociopolitical environment is characterised by strong patronage networks. And that ethnic and religious identities strongly overlap and reinforce political cleavage. The perceived exclusion of one religion or ethnic group can fuel tensions that quickly turn into a violent ethno-religious crisis.
Tinubu’s unprecedented choice of a fellow Muslim as vice-president is likely to increase ethnic and religious tensions in the north-central zone. Allegations of discrimination against Igbos in Lagos could spur Biafra-related activism and violence in the south-east.
His promises to create more employment opportunities and establish civilian neighbourhood watch groups hold potential for reducing the Boko Haram conflict and banditry in the north-east and north-west.
In the north-central region, Tinubu’s presidency will likely face more communal conflicts between farmers and herders. These have long interlinked with ethnic and religious tensions.