America’s central bank is expected to raise rates by a quarter point on Wednesday. The question now is what comes next.
Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point at their meeting this week, further slowing what had been an aggressive pace of rate increases in 2022 as they wait to see how swiftly inflation will fade.
Moving gradually will give Fed officials more time to assess how high rates need to rise and how long they need to stay elevated to fully wrangle inflation, both of which are looming and crucial questions. The answers will help to determine how much damage the Fed inflicts on the labor market and broader economy in its quest to control price increases.
Central bankers raised interest rates from near zero to above 4.25 percent last year, and they are expected to lift rates to a range of 4.5 to 4.75 percent on Wednesday. Investors will be even more attuned to what may come next, and will parse the Fed’s 2 p.m. statement and the subsequent news conference by the Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, for clues about the future.
Fed officials predicted in December that they would lift rates to just above 5 percent in 2023, then hold them at a high level throughout the year. But incoming data will drive how high the Fed raises rates and how long it keeps them at that level.