Intelligence offers a more troubling assessment than the US has publicly stated of Taiwan’s ability to defend
Barely more than half of Taiwan’s military aircraft are thought to be fully mission-capable CREDIT: Ritchie B Tongo/Shutterstock
Taiwan is highly vulnerable to a Chinese air attack and Beijing’s military tactics are hampering US ability to detect a potential invasion, according to leaked Pentagon assessments.The classified intelligence, reviewed by the Washington Post, offers a more troubling assessment than the US has publicly stated of Taiwan’s ability to defend itself should Beijing prepare to invade.Pentagon officials offer a number of reasons they consider it unlikely the self-governed island could counter an aerial attack, according to the documents.They include Taiwanese officials’ own doubts that their air defences can “accurately detect missile launches” and the fact that barely more than half of its aircraft are fully mission-capable.The increasing speed of Beijing’s operations, as well as its habit of using civilian ships for military exercises, is also “eroding” US spy agencies’ ability to spot plans for an attack.It is a grim assessment that suggests the Chinese air force would have a stronger chance of establishing early control of the skies, a strategy that Taipei believes would underpin a potential attack.
Intelligence suggests the Chinese air force would have a stronger chance of establishing early control of the skies over Taiwan CREDIT: STR/AFP via Getty
However, the intelligence does also suggest that Beijing would struggle to
In a separate report, the Washington Post revealed US intelligence agencies know about four additional Chinese spy balloons, as well as the one that was shot down after flying over the US earlier this year.
A second spy balloon flew over a US carrier strike group, the newspaper reported, while a third crashed into the South China Sea.
One balloon, which the US nicknamed Bulger-21, circumnavigated the globe from December 2021 until May 2022, according to the documents. Another, nicknamed Accardo-21, carried similarly sophisticated sensors for spying, it says.
It is unclear whether the two balloons were the same as those involved in the incidents with the US carrier or the crash in the South China Sea.
‘Sending fake aid workers’
Meanwhile, a senior Tory MP warned that Beijing could attempt to covertly invade Taiwan by sending fake aid workers in the aftermath of a typhoon.
Alicia Kearns, chair of the Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee, said that Beijing may try to exploit the damage from a natural disaster to deploy troops dressed as humanitarian workers to Taiwan or its outlying islands.
a foothold on Taiwan, allowing an opening for the US, Taiwan and its allies to quickly thwart an invasion.The revelations were among the dozens of closely-guarded US intelligence secrets that have been leaked online.