Forecasts published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicate that the global economy will grow by 2.6% in 2023, down from 2022 by 06%. However, the 2023 slowdown rate is close to half, compared to the difference between the 2022 real growth rate of 3.2%, and the predicted growth of late 2021, which is 4.3%. But it is still positive for most countries in the world, with the exception of Russia.
According to these forecasts, economic growth will be positive in most major global economies, with the exception of Russia, whose economy will shrink by 2.5%, and the United Kingdom by 0.2%. China leads all over the world with growth, as the Chinese economy will grow at 5.3%, according to forecasts. China is immediately followed by India with a growth rate of 5%, then Indonesia at 4.7%, Turkey with 2.8% and Saudi Arabia at 2.6%. The G20 will also have a growth rate of 2.6%.
In the United States, the world’s largest economy, economic growth will not exceed 1.5%, and it will fall to 0.9% in 2024. Growth in the seven industrialized countries in 2023 will fall to 1.1%, and in the eurozone, which includes 17 countries, the expected growth will be 0.8%.
Economic growth for most of the world’s countries, including China, is forecast to decline further in 2024, with the exception of India where economic growth will rise to 7.7%, Indonesia to 5.1%, Turkey to 3.8% and Saudi Arabia to 3.7%. The global growth rate for 2024 will rise slightly to 2.9%, from 2.6% for 2023. The Russian and British economies will recover slightly in 2024, as the rate of contraction in the Russian economy will shrink to 0.5%, while the British contraction leaves for positive growth, but only 0.9% compared to 2023, and this will likely not affect the results of the next elections that will take place in late 2024, or early 2025.
One factor that has contributed to improving the prospects of the global economy, or not falling worse than it could have been, is that energy and food prices have fallen slightly, although the price level is still higher than it was before the Russo-Ukrainian war. Mitigating restrictions on economic activity in China will also, as expected, contribute to revitalizing the global economy and sustaining the supply of goods, goods and services, which in turn will contribute to the revitalization of tourism.
Many industrialized countries in Asia, Europe and America rely on Chinese imports to grow their economies, especially low-priced intermediate goods. If we look at the trade balance between China and the United States, for example, we see that it is sharply in favor of China. Chinese exports to the United States amounted to $537 billion in 2022, compared to $153 billion in U.S. exports to China, according to BEA.
China is the third-largest trading partner of the United States, after Canada and Mexico. Based on China Customs Authority figures, the US is China’s third trading partner, by volume, after the ASEAN Group and the EU.