As fragments of the downed Chinese “spy” balloon hurtled earthward off the South Carolina coast on Saturday so, for now, did hopes for a reset in US-China relations. As divers hunt for remnants of the airship shot down by a US fighter, Beijing officials have accused Washington of an overreaction that has dealt a “serious blow” to ties between the world’s biggest military powers. China provocatively violated US airspace; a planned visit by secretary of state Antony Blinken to Beijing had already been called off. There is a danger the incident could set off a vicious cycle that wreaks severe economic and political damage. But this should be a moment for restraint, not escalation. Beijing improbably insisted a “civilian weather airship” had been blown off course by high winds while collecting meteorological data, in a case of “force majeure”. US officials said they had confirmed it was a surveillance balloon carrying unusual equipment. It would be surprising if such an incursion was approved by President Xi Jinping, whose recent commitment to improving ties with the US seemed genuine. That opens the possibility that its presence was a result of miscommunication between arms of the Chinese apparatus — or, worryingly, that a hardline faction was attempting to sabotage the reset. Either way, the timing is unfortunate. Several developments loom that could further strain relations. US officials increasingly worry that Chinese state companies may be assisting Russia’s military effort against Ukraine by providing technology and semiconductors — which may raise pressure for action by the White House. The administration is already expected as early as next month to move to create a body to review outbound US investments into China. And the new Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is expected to ape his Democratic predecessor Nancy Pelosi with a visit to Taiwan this year — though there are better and less inflammatory ways for the US to show solidarity with the self-governing island.