There comes a point in many wars where the warring sides wonder what they have got themselves into. By some accounts, Vladimir Putin reached that stage in September. After a series of military setbacks, the Russian leader was showing anger — and even panic.
Putin is now said to have regained his equanimity. With the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion falling this week, it is the western alliance backing Ukraine that is having difficult debates.
At the public events at the Munich Security Forum, which took place over the weekend, western leaders exuded confidence and resolution. The broad messages could be summarised as “onwards to victory” and “unconditional support for Ukraine”.
But, in private, there is anxious discussion about a series of open questions. Which side has the initiative on the battlefield? Can Russia be forced to accept a peace on terms acceptable to Ukraine? If the war drags on, do Ukraine and its western backers have the necessary staying power?
On the plus side, it is clear the war has gone far worse for Russia than seemed plausible on the eve of the invasion. Back then, it was widely assumed that Putin would win very quickly. But the Russians are bogged down and taking heavy casualties.
The western alliance, which spent much of the Cold War worrying about Russian tanks sweeping across Europe, has discovered that Russia cannot even take and hold Kharkiv, a city 50 kilometres from its border.
But while the Russian military has performed worse than expected, the Russian economy has performed better. When swingeing western sanctions were imposed, it was widely predicted that Russia would suffer an economic contraction of 20 per cent or more. In the event, its economy is thought to have shrunk by about 3-4 per cent — and may grow over the next year. The fact that sanctions are not truly global has made them relatively easy to circumvent.
By contrast, the Ukrainian economy is in deep trouble and dependent on western aid. For this reason, influential western analysts argue that time is not on Ukraine’s side — and that if Kyiv is to win, it must do so quickly. In Munich, there were frequent calls to give Ukraine all the help it needs to go on the offensive this spring and inflict a decisive defeat on Russia.
One hopeful scenario sketched out by some western officials is that if Ukraine pushes Russia back to the gates of Crimea, then Putin may be forced to the negotiating table. The best case is that this could be achieved by the summer.
But there are some leaps of faith embedded in that scenario. For the moment, it is the Russians who are making small advances on the battlefield. The Ukrainians may soon be forced to withdraw from Bakhmut, where a brutal conflict continues to rage.
A Ukrainian counter-offensive is widely anticipated. But the Ukrainian armed forces are short of ammunition and lack some of the equipment they may need to make rapid gains — in particular, fighter planes.