As Turkish authorities grapple with the agony of a mounting death toll from the deadliest earthquake in a century, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is confronting a parallel crisis: the disaster’s blow to an economy that was already in urgent need of repair.
The quake, which has killed over 40,000 people in Turkey and thousands more in neighboring Syria, will saddle Ankara with a staggering reconstruction bill and weakened economic growth, posing a fresh challenge to Mr. Erdogan as he seeks a third four-year term and maintain a grip on his political fortunes ahead of a crucial presidential election in May.
Before the devastation, which also left millions homeless, Turkey was already reeling from a collapsing currency and runaway inflation that had reached an annual rate of 85 percent in October. Those vulnerabilities have punched holes in the nation’s balance sheet and tipped Turkish families and businesses into a cost-of-living crisis.
Aggravating the problems are unorthodox financial policies pursued by Mr. Erdogan, a strongman leader who has tightened his control over the economy and strengthened ties with Russia and the Gulf States to help bolster Turkey’s finances.
Reconstruction is expected to cost $10 billion to $50 billion, although the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation has put the total closer to $85 billion. Over 8,000 buildings were flattened and supply chain infrastructure, including roads and the Iskenderun seaport, were damaged when the quake rocked southern Turkey. The area, a manufacturing and maritime transport hub that was also home to thousands of war-hit Syrian refugees, accounts for 9 percent of Turkey’s economic activity.
The situation remains dire, with emergency crews still extracting the dead from the ruins of apartment buildings and homeless survivors sheltering in cars and making bonfires from wreckage to stay warm. They are also short on food, fuel and medical supplies.
Analysts say Mr. Erdogan, who has been criticized for his handling of relief efforts, is doubling down on an autocratic playbook for managing the economic and political fallout.
“His main focus is on the elections,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Erdogan has never won without delivering growth, and he will be seeking a rebalancing effect once reconstruction starts.”
accusations of crony ties between his government and Turkey’s construction industry, Mr. Erdogan earlier this month ordered the detention of dozens of building contractors and announced a fast-track rebuilding program to start replacing thousands of destroyed homes within one year.