Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko are often described as a political match made in heaven. But the strength of their relationship - and whether they even like each other - has been questioned by many.
Alexander Lukashenko visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on Thursday, April 6, as the Kremlin revealed that the two leaders were holding talks on “topical bilateral and international issues”. The meeting, US analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say, may signal that Russia is trying to force Belarus towards territorial unity. In its daily briefing, released on Wednesday, the ISW said the Kremlin will likely attempt to “coerce Belarus into further Union State integration” they meet. The geopolitics surrounding Belarus and Russia has unnerved the world for decades. Yet, a look back at history shows that Lukashenko and Putin aren't exactly the best of friends — and that the limits of their relationship may well be tested in the near future.
Belarus and Russia, two former USSR countries, have been allied and part of a Union State since the late Nineties. The key topic the two leaders discussed this week was the Union State Treaty which will form a borderless alliance between the two countries.
In Soviet Times, Belarus and Russia were out of balance, the latter holding more power and political weight than its ancient neighbour. That is the same today, according to military Sean Bell, who told Sky News that Putin has now installed a “puppet regime” in Belarus.
Similarly, Russian domestic politics expert Emily Ferris from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said it is now clear that Putin intends for Belarus to become an “entirely subordinate client state”.
It may go some way in explaining why Putin and Lukashenko have not always seen eye-to-eye, and it is believed the pair tolerate rather than like each other — each using the other for his own agendas.
Lukashenko resisted the pull of Moscow for years with his and Putin’s personal relationship “known to be poor”, according to Ms Ferris.
She wrote: "[This was] exacerbated by Belarus’s initial criticism of the 2014 annexation of Crimea, followed by its hosting of the Minsk agreements since 2015.
A series of other spats between Russia and Belarus have ensued since, including disagreements over oil taxes, Lukashenko’s periodic snubbing of important economic summits, and an obtrusive Russian ambassador to Belarus who overreached and attempted to interfere in Belarusian domestic affairs. In the case of the latter, and as a signal of slight conciliation towards Belarus, Moscow recalled him."
Despite this, Lukashenko has grown increasingly reliant on Putin. “Europe’s last dictator” looked to Russia for help when mass protests broke out against him in 2020 following the alleged fraudulent presidential elections
.Initially, Moscow did not know how to react to the outcry, Gustav Gressel, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations told AFP.
Whilehe was hesitant to become too involved with Belarusian domestic politics for fear of Western reprisal, Putin eventually agreed to grant a loan to Belarus, but Mr Gressel said the situation with tricky as Lukashenko was by no means admired in the Kremlin.
Mr Gressel explained: "They came to the conclusion that Lukashenko is probably a dead end but for them, it’s embarrassing if it’s done from the streets, so they need to cast this in a process to have control over it.
I think they are looking for ways to manage this… (Lukashenko) is someone who can be replaced without the Kremlin losing too much face; he is not the poster boy of Russian-Belarusian friendship anymore."
Yet, on the face of it, Putin and Lukashenko's relationship appears solid. The pair have met several times since the war in Ukraine began, meetings in which the Belarusian leader has spoken fondly of his Russian counterpart, once calling him his “older brother”.
He also described Russia as a friend which had “held out its hand” to Belarus in providing it with discounted oil and gas. He added: “Russia can manage without us, but we can't [manage] without Russia.”
Belarus is also politically and financially backed by, arguably dependent on Moscow, and Russia has used its neighbour to launch its “special military operation” in Ukraine, conduct military training, and deploy nuclear weapons on its territory.
Just last week, Lukashenko suggested during a national address that Russia will deploy strategic nuclear weapons to Belarus in addition to the tactical nuclear warheads Putin revealed were heading his way towards the end of March.
Lukashenko also sought to make the two leaders appear like "Brothers in Arms" during a visit in December, describing himself and Putin as “co-aggressors” and that they were the two most "toxic" people on the planet, admitting that they could not agree on who was “more toxic”.
He said: “Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] says that I am. I am already starting to think that he is…Well, [we] decided that we both are [equally toxic]. That's all. And if someone today thinks of tearing us [apart], of forcing us apart….[they will not].”
Belarus has not yet entered the war, but the prospect hasn't been taken off the table. Ms Ferris added: “Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted a political shift in Belarus as Russia tightens its grip on its key regional ally."