Getting tanks for Ukraine was big but more advanced weapons systems will be needed. And then comes the really big price tag for rebuilding.
While the Western commitment to send tanks to Ukraine was a welcome breakthrough, it should not be seen as a panacea. At this crucial juncture in the war between Russia and Ukraine, the outcome of the conflict is far from clear and it will take at least two major shifts in U.S. and NATO policies to capitalize on the successes achieved by Kyiv during the past year.
The first change required is to recognize that it is time to move toward an even more aggressive approach toward providing Ukraine with weapons, ammunition, and other vital supplies going forward. Welcome and essential as they have been, every provision of new weapons systems thus far has been a painstaking negotiation. Every step along the way toward providing more aid has been greeted by critics echoing Russian warnings that upgraded assistance to Ukraine could lead to potentially out-of-control escalation by Moscow. But that escalation has not happened. Russia’s capabilities have been proven to be far less than touted by them or by Western analysts before the war. They can’t beat Ukraine. They are not going to undertake a war against NATO that would lead to certain, swift disaster for Putin & Co.
We must acknowledge this fact and confidently shift to a different aid footing. For three decades the U.S. has been guided by the so-called Powell Doctrine that states that if we enter a war we should do so with overwhelming force. Providing ourselves with narrow margins of advantage is seen as dangerous… because it is.
As the war has progressed this past year, we have come to realize that the only true threat to NATO and Europe would be for Russia to be able to defeat Ukraine and to get away with its land grab and atrocities in that country. That is what we must avoid at all costs. And the only way to do that is to provide Ukraine with more rather than “just enough” assistance.
The provision of tanks is a case in point. Western governments have debated providing advanced main battle tanks for months. They have dragged their feet—Germany in particular. While front-line states, those sharing a border with Russia and therefore at greatest risk, like Poland and the Baltics, have urged swift provision of the weapons systems and have donated really substantial percentages of their weapons stockpiles to the fight, the bigger nations of NATO have moved slowly.
The recently achieved breakthrough—for which U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin deserves major credit—is welcome but also less than meets the eye. Perhaps 105 Western tanks are now pledged. But the 31 U.S. Abrams tanks pledged are unlikely to make their way to Ukraine until late this year.