The Taiwan issue has always posed a tough question when it comes to the Sino-Australian relationship, and tensions in the region show no sign of diminishing as the US approves $15 billion for Taiwan weapons funding for the first time.

From Scott Morrison’s infamous “one country two systems” mistake to Albanese’s inaccurate comments on Taiwan’s Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) bid, it seems that the Australian government has yet to recognise the importance of Taiwan to its national security and hasn’t planned strategically how to support Taipei without triggering Beijing. Although Australia might seem to have no direct impact from the further deterioration of cross-strait relations, it is projected to have significant economic disruption if the war were to happen.

Canberra once again found itself caught in the tangled political dilemma between Taiwan and China, with the Australian MPs delegation visiting Taiwan last week.Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have placed the region in an unprecedented and uncertain standing. With a series of political events throughout this year, particularly the Ukraine-Russia war and US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China has demonstrated its strong determination to take over by escalating its military threats.

So, if China were to take over Taiwan by force, what are the implications for Australia? China’s assertive authoritarianism agenda has been disrupting the rule-based liberal order. Through human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and the trade retaliation against Australia, China has repeatedly ignored international law or values that have been upheld by the international community.In addition, in recent years, China has intensified authoritarian control over its citizens through technology and its zero-COVID policy. As such, some political analysts and government officials in Canberra suggested that if China were to take over Taiwan, it would “catastrophically compromise” the stability of the region.Since Australia is considered one of Washington’s most important and reliable partners, it is likely to find itself caught in a double bind if the US defends Taiwan as Joe Biden has publicly stated. Even if Australia chose not to get involved in militarily supporting Taiwan, it would still face potential economic sanctions from China. In fact, surveys from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and Lowy have indicated that almost half of Australians show willingness to send troops to defend Taiwan.