On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia intends to end hostilities in Ukraine. Don’t buy it, Putin is all spin and the war is almost certain to continue. And as the war drags on, Putin’s hand will be continue to be felt across Ukraine — and quite possibly the world.
By now Putin realizes that Ukraine is not about to capitulate. To the contrary, Zelensky is securing a steady stream of Western weaponry and 100 Ukrainian soldiers are in Oklahoma training to use the Patriot missile defense system. Along with Germany and France, the US is also sending 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles to hunt down Russian T-90 tanks. Rightfully emboldened, Kyiv plans to launch another counter-offensive, striking “deeper and deeper” into Russia, according Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov who promised the “hottest” fighting in March.
Russia is responding accordingly. In December, Defense Minister Shoigu announced plans to beef up Russia’s military from 1 to 1.5 million, with 315,000 additional soldiers and another half-a million conscripts added towards that goal. And last week Putin switched commanders again, tasking the chief of the military general staff, Valeriy Gerasimov, to lead combat operations in Ukraine. Gerasimov’s deputy: Sergei Surovikin, AKA “General Armageddon.”
This is a clear sign of more to come. A close ally of Putin’s, 67 year-old Gerasimov was a field commander in Chechnya from 1998 to 2003. On Putin’s orders, he “cleaned” – aka destroyed – its capital, Grozny, in 2000, killing tens of thousands in the process. Gerasimov is also the author of a special “total warfare” doctrine integrating conventional, asymmetric, and guerrilla tactics.
Nonetheless, on Christmas Day, Putin announced that Russia is ready to negotiate an “acceptable solution” to the war. This was another lie. Days later, Russian missiles began hammering Ukraine for a week. On January 5th, Putin called for a temporary ceasefire in observation of Orthodox Christmas from January 6 to January 7th, another spin. Despite the ceasefire, Russia continued to pummel Ukraine with missile and drone strikes. Putin is not interested in settling for peace. He views this conflict as existential and considers Ukraine as part of Russia’s strategic buffer against NATO. Any talk from Moscow about a cease fire is pure deception.
Along with conventional warfare, Russia’s cyber offensives are certain to increase. In 2022, Russia conducted 1,655 cyber attacks on Ukraine, according to senior Ukrainian official Yuriy Schygol. Russia first began with a massive salvo against key Ukrainian networks, which crippled critical Ukrainian infrastructure, knocking out heat, electricity, and drinking water. The suffering has been so severe that there’s been talk of declaring cyber attacks as a war crime.