The king’s son has been running the country for a while. But the change is not merely aesthetic.
At first glance, it may seem shrug-worthy that the king of Saudi Arabia has named his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to replace him as the country’s prime minister. MBS, as the prince is known, has already been running the country, while his ailing father has served as a figurehead, for some time.
But in fact, the promotion is likely a significant move, for reasons that have not been publicized: Assuming the title of prime minister protects the Crown Prince from a ruling of liability in a U.S. court—and possible arrest while traveling abroad—for his role in the 2018 murder of Saudi critic and American journalist Jamal Khashoggi
First, let’s deal with the true power dynamics of the Saudi kingdom. When Barack Obama was president, I heard stories (which I’ve since confirmed) about two senior U.S. officials meeting with Saudi King Salman in his palace office. While talking, the king gazed at a picture frame on his desk. Off in a corner, the crown prince—who wasn’t so famous at the time—sat typing on his laptop. Gradually the officials realized what was going on: the dutiful son was typing what his ailing father, the king, should say; the picture frame was, in fact, an iPad (or some sort of tablet), and the king was reading aloud a script written by the prince.
It’s possible that the king—who is now 86 and in declining health—promoted his son this past Tuesday simply in order to preempt any challenges to his succession. Any uncertainties about the line should have been settled in 2017, when MBS detained dozens of members of the Saudi elite, including several cousins, keeping them locked up in luxury hotel suites—some for as long as a year—ostensibly on charges of corruption but also to compel their loyalty to the existing Royal Family power structure. Still, it’s conceivable that incipient challenges still loom, which this move would preempt.
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But a more likely rationale for promoting the Crown Prince now is spelled out in a story by Stephanie Kirchgaessner in the Guardian (and confirmed to me by a former U.S. intelligence official who has kept up close contacts in the Middle East). Two years ago, Khashoggi’s fiancée filed a civil suit against MBS for kidnapping, torturing, and killing the journalist—an American resident who has sharply criticized the Royal family—inside the Saudi consulate in Turkey. The U.S. district judge in that case asked the Biden Administration to weigh in on whether MBS should be granted “sovereign immunity”—a concept, dating back to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, that, among other things, protects heads of state from being sued or tried in other countries. The Biden administration was given until Oct. 3—this Monday—to reply.